Important disclosures

Global Predictions Inc ("Global Predictions") offers services, including PortfolioPilot that are designed to help you make informed decisions about your financial future. globalpredictions.com and portfoliopilot.com will be referred to as the "Sites". This disclosure statement provides important information about the scope and limitations of our services & Sites, risks of investing, and our commitment to safeguarding your privacy and information. Please take the time to read and understand these disclosures before using our services.

Firm disclosure documents as required by SEC:


1. General disclosure. Nothing on our Sites should be construed as a solicitation or offer, or recommendation, to buy or sell any security. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. Investing involves risk. The value of your investment will fluctuate, and you may gain or lose money. All charts, figures, and graphs are for illustrative purposes only. There can be no assurance that a hypothetical, or actual performance shown on the Sites will lead to the expected results shown or perform in any predictable manner.

2. Services. Our services range from financial analysis to investment recommendations, including offering guidance on the selection and management of securities, including stocks, bonds, mutual funds, and ETFs. We also assist with portfolio diversification and risk management. Please note, our guidance is based on our understanding of market trends and general economic conditions; it does not guarantee any specific investment performance. Furthermore, this guidance may not be comprehensive in its understanding of all facets of macroeconomics, markets, and individual user’s specific situations, and thus should not be relied on as such (please see section on “Portfolio Analysis and Recommendations”).

3. Past performance: Past performance information might be shared to provide insight into our investment strategies and decision-making process. However, past performance is not indicative of future results and does not imply the validity of any trading strategy. Investment values will fluctuate as market conditions change. It is important to understand that all investment strategies, including those achievable in conjunction with our investment platform, could lead to the loss of your invested capital. Global Predictions and the PortfolioPilot platform do not manage any investment capital.

4. Risks. Investments inherently carry risk, including the potential loss of all invested capital. This can occur as a result of numerous factors including, but not limited to, market volatility, specific investment selection, and global economic conditions. While our platform uses a variety of analyses to measure and provide guidance on managing risk, we cannot guarantee any specific investment results or that you will not experience loss in your investment account(s).

Besides the risks involved in investing, there are additional risks that come with the use of our platform – including, but not limited to, the possibility that critical data is missing, incomplete, or inaccurate, and that data is not sufficiently up to date. Please see the section “Accuracy of Information” for more details.

 

5. Interactive Tools. The PortfolioPilot platform itself is an interactive analysis tool. Non-interactive content, where it exists, is available to provide details on key data and assumptions used by the tool.

PortfolioPilot should not be used as the sole basis for any investment decision. All outcomes generated are hypothetical in nature and may vary with each use of the tool over time.

There are many limitations associated with using this interactive analysis tool, including, but not limited to, the following: 1) data presented may not represent the latest possible information (security prices are, for example, generally updated as of previous market close), 2) tax impacts, fees, and transaction costs associated with trading are not captured, 3) your individual goals, preferences, and investing situation may not be fully represented within the system, 4) there may be investments superior to those analyzed, and 5) recommendations provided may become stale before acted upon.

Where there is material ambiguity regarding assumptions and methodologies, please refer to the disclosures or reach out to support.

6. Forecasts. The Sites make use of Forecasted or Expected performance for the purposes of interactive analysis and displaying key assumptions of that interactive analysis. Actual financial and macroeconomic statistics are unknowable and will differ, often substantially, from forecasted statistics. "Global Predictions" model assumptions are derived from a proprietary set of finance and machine learning models, which blend securities data with macroeconomic and statistical projections. "Market expected returns" model assumptions are based on the Capital Asset Pricing Model, using historical securities data, a market risk premium of 5%, and the expected 1-year risk free rate, as computed by Global Predictions.

7. Portfolio Analysis and Recommendations. The Portfolio Score, Portfolio Analysis, and Personalized Recommendations are intended to provide insight based on the net worth you have aggregated in the PortfolioPilot product and other information you have provided. All insight provided represents a courtesy extended to you for educational purposes and you should not rely on this information as the primary basis of your investment, financial, or tax planning decisions. If you are ill-equipped to manage your portfolio yourself, you should seek financial, tax, and/or legal professionals regarding your specific situation.

There are inherent limitations on our selection methodology as the suitability factors valuated by the PortfolioPilot algorithms do not comprehensively address all relevant considerations when making investment suitability determinations. Although Global Predictions has standards governing the design, development, and testing of software before it is put into production with client assets, there is a risk that software may not perform as intended or as disclosed. Global Predictions’ algorithms may not perform as intended for a variety of reasons, including but not limited to incorrect assumptions, changes in the market, available liquidity, and/or changes to data inputs. Global Predictions periodically modifies its algorithms, or a computer system’s code or underlying assumptions, and these changes may have unintended consequences. Global Predictions conducts testing designed to ensure that our algorithms continue to function as intended when new code is introduced, and existing code is updated. Although such testing is intended to ensure that code changes do not create unintended consequences, clients should understand that testing, no matter how comprehensive, cannot guarantee the absence of code-related issues with our algorithms.

Comparative analysis, including portfolio simulations and draft portfolios, is intended to illustrate hypothetical differences between various allocation strategies based on a long-term historical asset class performance and is not meant to imply actual performance or results. Some of the analysis does not include taxes or fees, which can have a material impact. It is not possible to invest without incurring expenses, which will lower the actual return. Please see the Hypothetical Performance disclosure below.

Recommendations are drawn from a universe of securities that seeks to cover most ETFs listed on the New York Stock Exchange, NASDAQ, Toronto Stock Exchange, ARCA, BATS, Canadian National Stock Exchange, NEO, NYSE American, and TSX Ventures exchanges, plus any holdings (stocks, mutual funds, crypto, etc.) in a user’s inputted portfolios, where data is available. The actual universe of securities will be slightly smaller due to data availability from 3rd party providers like IEX, Polygon, and AlphaVantage. The platform aims to evaluate ~100 possible securities at different weights for each inputted portfolio, though the exact number will vary depending on user-inputted holdings and preferences. The system seeks to weed out ETFs not already held that carry high expense ratios and some specialty funds like leveraged or dedicated short funds. The platform outputs recommendations for which the addition or removal of a security improves the Portfolio Score. Users should be aware that there may be investments superior to those analyzed. Recommendations are only valid in the moments after they are generated.

Fees analysis is drawn only from expense ratio data and does not include other types of fees or transaction costs, including, but not limited to, sales charges which may be deferred, such as back-end load fees incurred when selling some mutual funds. Always conduct further research before acting on the Fees analysis interactive output. Fund similarity is determined by comparing two fund's metadata as well as their quantitative relatedness over their histories. Any changes to a portfolio, however small, will also change its outlook as a whole, because even similar securities are not the same.

6. Hypothetical Performance and Simulation. Some sections of the Sites – such as the Overview, Simulations, and AI Equity Search pages, display interactive, hypothetical performance. As the designation suggests, these outputs are entirely hypothetical in nature, and are meant to be illustrative. They are often missing key considerations such as transaction costs and other fees. Where possible the Sites contain notes regarding assumptions and methodologies, but if there is any ambiguity, please contact support. Hypothetical performance information on the Sites is generated via interactive tools (please see the Interactive Tools section for more information about the risks and limitations therein).

 There are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently realized by any particular trading program. Hypothetical performance is not indicative of future results. One of the limitations of hypothetical performance results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points that can adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program that cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results, all of which can adversely affect actual trading results.

All insight provided from hypothetical performance and simulation represents a courtesy extended to you for illustrative purposes only and you should not rely on this information as the primary basis of your investment, financial, or tax planning decisions. No representations, warranties, or guarantees are made as to the accuracy of any estimates or calculations. Global Predictions is not liable for any damages or costs of any type arising out of or in any way connected with your use of these indications.

7. AI Equity Research. This interactive tool is intended for research purposes only. It is not investment advice and does not imply anything definitive about the performance of any basket of securities or the efficacy of any trading strategy. Its output is hypothetical in nature and may vary each time used depending on the query submitted, any changes to historical data series, and randomness inherent to the ways that generative AI models produce information. There is no guarantee that the securities outputted will relate in any way to the query presented, and all users of the tool should validate all outputs as part of a research process. Please see the Use of Artificial Intelligence section for more important disclosures.

Simulated returns are generated using security weights given by the "relevance" column in the table and applying historical security returns to those weights. Constant security weighting (i.e. rebalancing each period) is employed; where data is not available, the rest of the portfolio is scaled up to offset the missing weight. No transaction costs or other fees are assumed. The simulation is meant to be illustrative only. Nothing here is indicative of future results.

The 'country and sector' benchmark is produced by taking a proxy version of the current reference portfolio (e.g., using representative indices to construct a series with a similar economic profile to the basket). Constant security weighting (i.e., rebalancing each period) is employed. No transaction costs or other fees are assumed. The benchmark returns are meant to be illustrative only. Nothing here is indicative of future results.

Alpha is simply the simulated return versus the benchmark and is not meant to indicate anything positive or negative about any basket or any trading strategy.

8. Tax Information. Where shown, tax information represents an approximate and illustrative calculation based on user-inputted or connected data and rough Federal tax guidelines, but Global Predictions, Inc. does not assert in any way that the tax outcomes illustrated within its Sites will be realized or that any guidance will yield any specific tax outcome. Global Predictions Inc takes no responsibility for the tax implications to any client of any transaction. We are not tax experts. Information required to form a complete view of taxation is not fully ascertained within the PortfolioPilot platform, and the information that is there is often incomplete or incorrect (e.g., connected accounts through 3rd party partners often report incorrect costs bases). Clients should seek advice from qualified legal or tax professionals, such as tax attorneys or CPAs, regarding their specific circumstance.

9. Accuracy of information. We strive to provide accurate, current, and comprehensive financial information and analysis. However, there may be situations where information is incomplete, outdated, or contains typographical errors. We cannot warrant the accuracy or completeness of any information, including financial market data, research, or investment analysis. Securities prices are generally updated as of previous market close, but sometimes may be more lagged. Securities data comes from 3rd party sources such as IEX, Polygon, and AlphaVantage, and though Global Predictions generally believes these are accurate, no guarantees can be made to that effect. Holdings data from “connected accounts” are processed via 3rd party providers like Plaid, Yodlee, and SnapTrade. The timeliness of such data depends on the service employed, the brokerage connected to and its specific status at the moment of connection, as well as how quickly the brokerage updates its own data and whether any caching is employed in the connection layer. Forecast data is generally updated weekly. Please corroborate any information received through our platform. There are many sources available online for financial data including the SEC website.

10. Use of Artificial Intelligence. The PortfolioPilot platform uses Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Predictive Data Analytics (PDA) in a number of ways. Though care is taken by Global Predictions to validate these systems, they carry risks along the lines of misspecification, inaccurate information, conflicts of interest, and others that users should be aware of. The “Easy Portfolio Upload” feature is an example of user-in-the-loop artificial intelligence, wherein the platform reflects back the data for user confirmation or feedback. It is intended as a convenience and all outputs should be carefully reviewed by users before proceeding. The “AI Assistant” either makes internal API calls to retrieve structured data, retrieves articles based on embeddings, or answers general knowledge questions. These features are also provided as a convenience and all outputs should be validated either elsewhere in the platform (where the same API calls are used), in the referenced articles, or via 3rd party sources in the case of general knowledge, before making any investment decisions. Our forecasting systems and recommendations employ supervised learning algorithms that are proprietary to Global Predictions but are not “black box” PDA, so while they include risks inherent to all predictive analytics (see Forecasts section), they likely do not carry further risk associated with the use of large-language models and similar forms of AI. The “AI Assessment” feature takes structured API responses and summarizes the info for users. This feature is also a convenience for users and carries the risk that information is mis-transcribed or mis-summarized. Lastly, the “AI Equity Research” feature should not be relied upon for investment advice, as it is generated using a large-language model which may have bias, conflicts of interest, inaccurate information, or otherwise not be able to properly respond to the user directive. This feature is intended only to kickstart idea generation and analysis/research that is user-directed. It furthermore does not have access to and does not consider a user’s individual investment goals, needs, and context, as it is a general research tool (please see the AI Equity Research section).


11. Privacy Policy. Your privacy is our top priority. We are committed to maintaining the confidentiality, integrity, and security of your personal information. We have developed strict policies and procedures to protect your information, including limiting access to such information to those employees who need it to provide services to you. Our privacy policy is available to all clients and potential clients here; please review it to understand how we gather, use, and secure your information.

12. Electronic communication. Emails, chats, and other forms of electronic communication, while generally reliable, are not always secure or error-free. Messages may be lost, delayed, intercepted, or received by unintended recipients. Although we take precautions to safeguard your information, we cannot be responsible for losses or damages resulting from communication failures, including those due to technical failures or cybersecurity breaches.

For questions or additional information, please contact support@globalpredictions.com.
These Disclosures were last updated on October 27, 2023.