Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)

1. How does Global Predictions build its models, and how are they different from other sources?

Global Predictions fills a hole in the market for investors interested in considering more personalized insights to manage their investments. We believe our macro models are both more useful, accessible, and more accurate than models used by financial institutions and government agencies that have other objectives than managing your money, ensuring its safety and growth. We’re written extensively on our blog, and recommend you start here to read more about the steps we take to link personal investor preferences, remove bias, and increase model accuracy.

2. If Global Predictions has investible insights, why don’t you have a hedge fund?

Currently, Global Predictions doesn’t actively manage money. We’ve been focused on building a strong quantitative foundation through data and models, and now applying them to help individuals manage their portfolios. We have large future ambitions, however, applying these models to use cases across institutional investors to government policy-making. If you are interested in being contacted for future product offerings like a hedge fund or a Global Predictions managed ETF, please sign up for our waitlist here.

3. Why are you building Global Predictions?

We’re building Global Predictions to help all types of investors better understand the economy for the purpose of investing, planning and managing risk. Our models are currently calibrated to help individual investors navigate specific challenges in personal investing. Over time, our models will diversify and become more useful to more stakeholders and accomplish our company mission of reducing all external investment risk to promote growth worldwide. To learn more about the company and the team, visit our About Us page here.

4. Why is Global Predictions free for individual investors?

We believe that there has been information asymmetry between individuals and institutional investors for too long. There is a strong existing business model to sell data and market insight to institutions, but making these types of insights available to individuals who have highly personal investment objectives is a relatively new type of business. That means we’re learning with and from users about how to best interact with our economic models, running simulations, and applying insights directly to their portfolios. Global Predictions is currently free to remove any barriers for interested users to interact with our platform.

5. Does the usefulness of the models, data, insights, or forecasts decrease if more people have access to them?

The Global Predictions system is modeling and forecasting what will actually happen across public health, macroeconomics, and financial markets over the course of the next 2-12 months. We are not simply trying to generate a buy/sell signal like most alpha strategies in the market. This absolute forecasting approach actually means that as more people trust and use the insights from the core models, there are network effects and the forecast accuracy will increase over time.

6. Why do I need to connect my account to get investment insights?

Global Predictions has three main sources of input: 1) our models & economic data, 2) your existing investments, and 3) information you have shared about your risk appetite and investing preferences. That means that by linking your existing investment account(s), we can personalize recommendations to align your preferences with specific changes in your portfolio. Remember, Global Predictions has read-only access to your investment accounts and cannot make changes on your behalf. Only you can make real trades within your portfolio.

7. What does Global Predictions do with my data?

When you connect your accounts, we compile a birds eye view of your investments and start looking for patterns and opportunities for diversification aligned with your stated investment objectives. We do not have a model portfolio we’re trying to align you with, nor do we have a relationship with the managers of any of the ETFs or mutual funds we might recommend as part of a diversification strategy. Your investments and preferences are used solely for the purpose of generating tailored, timely insights to align your goals with what’s in your portfolio and what's happening in the economy.

8. Why is the Global Predictions model succeeding where many others have failed?

Most groups building quantitative investment models do so for the purpose of short-term investment value; basically, they build many simple, bottom-up "good enough" models to make money now, not focused on long term gains. Since we’re not focused on day trading, we can focus on building a top-down, high-quality data and modelling product that will generate value for our users over the long-term course of many economic cycles and investment conditions. We believe that by using hybrid-AI models and a modern data architecture, we can capture the long-term relationships that existing models simply don’t care about, and pass that value onto our users through better insights and recommendations.

FAQs

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